Think twice and then: combining or choosing in dialectical bootstrapping?
نویسندگان
چکیده
Individuals can partly recreate the "wisdom of crowds" within their own minds by combining nonredundant estimates they themselves have generated. Herzog and Hertwig (2009) showed that this accuracy gain could be boosted by urging people to actively think differently when generating a 2nd estimate ("dialectical bootstrapping"). Although the "crowd within" promises accuracy gains, it remains unclear whether and when people spontaneously reap those gains. What makes people combine their estimates rather than trying to identify the better one? This research found that participants were more likely to combine when they were instructed to actively contradict themselves. Furthermore, they were more likely to combine as the size of the disagreement between 1st and 2nd estimate grew. People thus acted as if they were hedging against the risk of making large errors. Finally, when people pursued a strategy other than combination, they were not able to outperform their crowd within.
منابع مشابه
The wisdom of many in one mind: improving individual judgments with dialectical bootstrapping.
The "wisdom of crowds" in making judgments about the future or other unknown events is well established. The average quantitative estimate of a group of individuals is consistently more accurate than the typical estimate, and is sometimes even the best estimate. Although individuals' estimates may be riddled with errors, averaging them boosts accuracy because both systematic and random errors t...
متن کاملThe crowd within and the benefits of dialectical bootstrapping: a reply to White and Antonakis (2013).
متن کامل
A Comparison between the Efficacy of Dialectical Behavior Therapy and Cognitive Behavioral Therapy on the Mental Health of Mothers of Children with Special Needs
Background: This research aimed to compare the effectiveness of dialectical behavior therapy and cognitive-behavioral therapy on the mental health of mothers of children with special needs (i.e. cerebral palsy, intellectual disability, and autism). Methods: This quasi-experimental study was a pre-test, post-test design with a control group. Study populations were the mothers of children admitt...
متن کاملFaculty burnout: Does anyone think of that?
Background: Job burnout is one of the factors that decrease the productivity of university faculty members. This is important for teachers who are a critical element of the educational system. Failure to pay attention to environmental and organizational factors as well as psychological and personality traits in professors will lead to adverse effects on their mental health, inc...
متن کاملA comparison between the effectiveness of dialectical and cognitive behavioral therapy on the mental health of mother
The negative mood affectivity is the psychological consequences of parents who having children with special needs. The aim of present study was comparing the effectiveness of dialectical behavior therapy and cognitive behavioral therapy on the regulation of the negative mood affectivity (depression, anxiety, and stress symptoms) among mothers having children with special needs. This quasi-exper...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
عنوان ژورنال:
- Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition
دوره 40 1 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2014